In the last couple weeks the financial crisis has single-handedly given Obama a comfortable lead in the national polls, and made the electoral road map very tough for McCain. He will need to win almost all the battleground states and find some way to flip a state like New Mexico, Minnesota, or Virginia where Obama has established significant leads. Is the race over? No, and it’s hard to tell how accurate the polls are. I heard an interview with Zogby I think it was who said that 80% of their calls they get hung up on. That means to get a poll of 3,000 people to answer there were 12,000 that hung up.
But regardless of the polls, I’ve already accepted that Obama might be the next President, and sadly I think it has much less to do with the vision and philosophy that Obama has put out, and more to do with the Republicans lack of fiscal restraint. Don’t get me wrong, I think Obama and his Herbert Hoover style of raising taxes will be worse for the economy than anything John McCain does, but right now the general public wants something new. I’m surprised I haven’t heard anyone mention how different the race might be right now if it was Romney against Obama, but no one could have predicted the economy would be the sole issue this election.
With the public declaring they want something new, I don’t think there is much McCain can do to change their minds. What he needs to do is come out and say that he will decrease the size of government and lower taxes (which would be in stark contrast to Obama), and while he has sort of said that, there are two big problems he faces. The first is that on one hand he says that, and then he says he wants to bailout all the stupid people that bought houses they can’t afford. The second is that people have lost faith in Republicans as believers in smaller government.
I think George W. Bush’s greatest mistake was letting government spending run rampant because he has damaged the Republican brand immensely. I think the War on Terror will be judged positively if Iraq becomes a beacon of hope in the region (and there hasn’t been another 9/11, which Bush deserves credit for). The economic issues have been pushed to the side though, and that’s what has McCain in such a pickle. He can’t come out and say the best way to get out of a financial crisis is lower taxes and smaller government, because people think he’s full of crap. It’s in this that I think Republicans have hope for the future.
If Obama wins and Democrats control Congress and the White House, I think Republicans should take a long look at what they stand for. I’ve said before that I’m a conservative first and a Republican second, and in recent years the Republicans in office have strayed a great deal from conservative principals of smaller government. If the Republicans find themselves in the minority in the next four years they need to stop and think about how they got there. Being “democrat-lite” is not what people want.
I think Obama’s policies will self-destruct if he governs anything like he talks and has voted in the past. Herbert Hoover was a one term President, so it’s possible the Republican party can turn itself around in four years. My biggest fear is that the economy recovers like it did in the early 90′s under Clinton. The economy had started a major upswing right before he got into office, and instead of the first Bush getting the credit it was Clinton. I’m not sure that can happen with Obama because we’ve just started to have major problems, and the end isn’t even in sight. That being said, once we hit bottom, there is only one way to go, and that is up. I guarantee if things get better the media will make sure it was Obama’s doing.
If that happens, the road for the Republicans is more difficult, but only time will tell. Whether Republicans can keep the White House or not, they’ve been getting spanked in Congress for a while now, so they need to sit down and really think about what they’ve done, and what they need to change. Get back to the party of limited government and lower taxes, and maybe then the people would be willing to trust you in office.