I wanted to get this post up before any real voting is done or there is any hint of how today will go. I want you to have my personally biased assessment before the fun begins tonight!

Here’s how I see things. McCain certainly has an uphill battle. There are some key states that he really needs to win like Florida and Ohio, and recent polls show him clearly in contention there. If Obama wins PA and NH (which recent polls show likely) then McCain really has his work cut out for him. There are a number of states he needs to win, like NV, NM, and CO to name a couple, and the polls in all of those are either very close or have Obama slightly ahead.

Speaking of polls though, I think the polls have overstated Obama’s lead for a while now. When pollsters come up with their polling numbers, they determine what percentage of the electorate will be Democrat and Republican. Many pollsters are giving Democrats a 6% advantage this year…but that hasn’t happened in the last 8 years! Over the last few election cycles the number of Republicans and Democrats that showed up were either tied, or Democrats showed up 2-4% more frequently, but never 6%. The last Presidential election was a tie, and to assume that four years later will be a huge Democrat turnout might be wishful thinking. Another promsing nugget is that several times in the primaries Obama was expected to win handily, sometimes by as much as double-digits, but he lost to Hillary in some of those states. Over and over Obama hasn’t been able to close the deal, and with some polls showing almost 10% of people unsure of whom they will vote for, that means McCain can still have a lot of votes in play. Since most of my readers are on the West coast, make sure you ignore any exit polling you hear because it consistently overstates support for the Democrat, and make sure you get out and vote. Here in California we’ve got other important things on our minds like Prop 8!

But either way, it should be interesting tonight. I’ve got some sausages to grill and some beers to drink, but whoever wins tonight wins. Obviously I think an Obama win would be bad for the country, but I’ve never had a blog while someone of the opposing party was in the White House. That might be fun, but I’ll certainly trade that for McCain and his supreme court nominees.

Here is my “guide” as requested by a couple people. Thanks to GeekyWeekly for doing the work on the Judicial nominees. Those are always a pain. Have fun tonight everyone!

Federal and Statewide
President/Vice President – John McCain/Sarah Palin
House and Senate Seats – Republican

Judicial
Office #72 – Hilleri Grossman Merritt
Office #82 – Thomas Rubinson
Office #84 – Pat Connolly
Office #94 – Michael J. O’Gara
Office #154 – Michael Jesic

Propositions
Prop 1A – No
Prop 2 – No
Prop 3 – No
Prop 4 – Yes
Prop 5 – No
Prop 6 – No
Prop 7 – No
Prop 8 – Yes
Prop 9 – Yes
Prop 10 – No
Prop 11 – Yes
Prop 12 – Yes
Measure R – No

In the last couple weeks the financial crisis has single-handedly given Obama a comfortable lead in the national polls, and made the electoral road map very tough for McCain. He will need to win almost all the battleground states and find some way to flip a state like New Mexico, Minnesota, or Virginia where Obama has established significant leads. Is the race over? No, and it’s hard to tell how accurate the polls are. I heard an interview with Zogby I think it was who said that 80% of their calls they get hung up on. That means to get a poll of 3,000 people to answer there were 12,000 that hung up.

But regardless of the polls, I’ve already accepted that Obama might be the next President, and sadly I think it has much less to do with the vision and philosophy that Obama has put out, and more to do with the Republicans lack of fiscal restraint. Don’t get me wrong, I think Obama and his Herbert Hoover style of raising taxes will be worse for the economy than anything John McCain does, but right now the general public wants something new. I’m surprised I haven’t heard anyone mention how different the race might be right now if it was Romney against Obama, but no one could have predicted the economy would be the sole issue this election.

With the public declaring they want something new, I don’t think there is much McCain can do to change their minds. What he needs to do is come out and say that he will decrease the size of government and lower taxes (which would be in stark contrast to Obama), and while he has sort of said that, there are two big problems he faces. The first is that on one hand he says that, and then he says he wants to bailout all the stupid people that bought houses they can’t afford. The second is that people have lost faith in Republicans as believers in smaller government.

I think George W. Bush’s greatest mistake was letting government spending run rampant because he has damaged the Republican brand immensely. I think the War on Terror will be judged positively if Iraq becomes a beacon of hope in the region (and there hasn’t been another 9/11, which Bush deserves credit for). The economic issues have been pushed to the side though, and that’s what has McCain in such a pickle. He can’t come out and say the best way to get out of a financial crisis is lower taxes and smaller government, because people think he’s full of crap. It’s in this that I think Republicans have hope for the future.

If Obama wins and Democrats control Congress and the White House, I think Republicans should take a long look at what they stand for. I’ve said before that I’m a conservative first and a Republican second, and in recent years the Republicans in office have strayed a great deal from conservative principals of smaller government. If the Republicans find themselves in the minority in the next four years they need to stop and think about how they got there. Being “democrat-lite” is not what people want.

I think Obama’s policies will self-destruct if he governs anything like he talks and has voted in the past. Herbert Hoover was a one term President, so it’s possible the Republican party can turn itself around in four years. My biggest fear is that the economy recovers like it did in the early 90′s under Clinton. The economy had started a major upswing right before he got into office, and instead of the first Bush getting the credit it was Clinton. I’m not sure that can happen with Obama because we’ve just started to have major problems, and the end isn’t even in sight. That being said, once we hit bottom, there is only one way to go, and that is up. I guarantee if things get better the media will make sure it was Obama’s doing.

If that happens, the road for the Republicans is more difficult, but only time will tell. Whether Republicans can keep the White House or not, they’ve been getting spanked in Congress for a while now, so they need to sit down and really think about what they’ve done, and what they need to change. Get back to the party of limited government and lower taxes, and maybe then the people would be willing to trust you in office.

John McCain made a super smart decision on his running mate. Her name is Sarah Palin. I think she has some major upside over a lot of the other old men that were in the running. I think the best thing this does is make Obama look old and stale for choosing Biden, and I guarantee some disaffected Hillary supporters will jump to McCain now. Awesome choice.

Get your John McCain paraphernalia here.

It’s only Sunday, but I figure this post needed to be made a few days in advance to have any effect. On Tuesday California votes in the Presidential nominating process, and what the blarg wants to know is, who are you voting for?

In case you’re new here or haven’t been reading, I am a strong supporter of Mitt Romney. Personally I think he has the right stance on the most issues, I think he has great experience both in private business and as a governor, he is a good family man, and I think he is the only candidate left that can win the general election.

At this point Republicans can choose between Romney, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul…but only Romney and McCain have a chance. So Huckabee and Paul supporters, I urge you to throw your support behind Mitt Romney, a more conservative candidate than John McCain, someone who loves working with Democrats on liberal legislation.

Right now polls are showing Romney closing the gap in California. One poll shows him tied with McCain, and one shows him +3 points over McCain. Hugh Hewitt has a great article detailing why conservative voters should rally behind Romney.

Who are you voting for on Super Tuesday and why?

After 3.5 days of deliberating my case finally ended and I went back to work today. I’m so tired of it that I don’t even feel like describing it, but I’ll give you the short version. Guy is going out with girl, but girl’s ex-boyfriend doesn’t like this, so he shoots at new boyfriend. Personally I think there was no reasonable doubt, but my opinion didn’t matter as an alternate. Two out of the 12 disagreed though, and the guy goes free. I’m glad I wasn’t in the deliberation room because I would have gone crazy arguing with the people.

On to the political front. John McCain won Florida by a few percentage points, but I’m still gung-ho for Romney. In less than a week we get our say here in California, and I think it’s time for everyone to make up their mind. It’s come down to Romney and McCain. There are far too many things McCain has done that go against conservative principles, and it’s important that he not be the nominee. To everyone backing Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, your votes will go down the drain. Instead, put them behind Romney, a younger and more conservative nominee than McCain with the energy to defeat Hillary or Obama. McCain will take the Republican party away from the conservative principles of Regan, and moving to the left has never helped the Republican party. I would rather we stick to our conservative principles and lose in November than to abandon them and never find our way again.

Vote Mitt Romney on Tuesday, February 5th.

Republicans

I stayed up until 2 am last night watching the Republicans debate in New Hampshire, and overall it was very interesting. Going into the debate Romney was my favorite, and after this debate, that is even more true. I was disgusted by some of the comments by John McCain and Mike Huckabee. They sounded like 3rd graders on a playground with some of their comments taking swipes at Romney. McCain and Huckabee both gave insults and then smiled like little brats. Neither of them will get my votes, and you should watch last night’s debate before you decide to support them.

As for Romney, despite the barrage of insults, he was extremely intelligent on all issues. His understanding of the health care issue was great. I still like Fred Thompson on the issues, but it doesn’t look like he wants it. Romney is now solidly my #1, Thompson #2, and Giuliani #3.

Democrats

I even sat through the 2 hours of the Democrats debate. Obviously I don’t support any of the Democrats, but eventually one of them will be battling a Republican. It’s interesting to compare the Republican debate with the Democrat debate. The Republican debate was full of substance and discussion about the issues. They were in-depth discussions on the economy, defense, health care, and illegal immigration. As I watch the Democrats, it’s almost void of details. They spent 15 minutes arguing about who is the biggest proponent of “change.” It was basically “I’m the best person for change, and I think we should have discussions about change, and who will be changing the most, because we need change!” It was idiotic, especially in comparison to the Republican discussion that actually focused on issues.

There is another GOP debate tonight on FOX News at 5 pm, but I’ll have to catch that on youtube.