I wanted to get this post up before any real voting is done or there is any hint of how today will go. I want you to have my personally biased assessment before the fun begins tonight!

Here’s how I see things. McCain certainly has an uphill battle. There are some key states that he really needs to win like Florida and Ohio, and recent polls show him clearly in contention there. If Obama wins PA and NH (which recent polls show likely) then McCain really has his work cut out for him. There are a number of states he needs to win, like NV, NM, and CO to name a couple, and the polls in all of those are either very close or have Obama slightly ahead.

Speaking of polls though, I think the polls have overstated Obama’s lead for a while now. When pollsters come up with their polling numbers, they determine what percentage of the electorate will be Democrat and Republican. Many pollsters are giving Democrats a 6% advantage this year…but that hasn’t happened in the last 8 years! Over the last few election cycles the number of Republicans and Democrats that showed up were either tied, or Democrats showed up 2-4% more frequently, but never 6%. The last Presidential election was a tie, and to assume that four years later will be a huge Democrat turnout might be wishful thinking. Another promsing nugget is that several times in the primaries Obama was expected to win handily, sometimes by as much as double-digits, but he lost to Hillary in some of those states. Over and over Obama hasn’t been able to close the deal, and with some polls showing almost 10% of people unsure of whom they will vote for, that means McCain can still have a lot of votes in play. Since most of my readers are on the West coast, make sure you ignore any exit polling you hear because it consistently overstates support for the Democrat, and make sure you get out and vote. Here in California we’ve got other important things on our minds like Prop 8!

But either way, it should be interesting tonight. I’ve got some sausages to grill and some beers to drink, but whoever wins tonight wins. Obviously I think an Obama win would be bad for the country, but I’ve never had a blog while someone of the opposing party was in the White House. That might be fun, but I’ll certainly trade that for McCain and his supreme court nominees.

Here is my “guide” as requested by a couple people. Thanks to GeekyWeekly for doing the work on the Judicial nominees. Those are always a pain. Have fun tonight everyone!

Federal and Statewide
President/Vice President – John McCain/Sarah Palin
House and Senate Seats – Republican

Judicial
Office #72 – Hilleri Grossman Merritt
Office #82 – Thomas Rubinson
Office #84 – Pat Connolly
Office #94 – Michael J. O’Gara
Office #154 – Michael Jesic

Propositions
Prop 1A – No
Prop 2 – No
Prop 3 – No
Prop 4 – Yes
Prop 5 – No
Prop 6 – No
Prop 7 – No
Prop 8 – Yes
Prop 9 – Yes
Prop 10 – No
Prop 11 – Yes
Prop 12 – Yes
Measure R – No

John McCain made a super smart decision on his running mate. Her name is Sarah Palin. I think she has some major upside over a lot of the other old men that were in the running. I think the best thing this does is make Obama look old and stale for choosing Biden, and I guarantee some disaffected Hillary supporters will jump to McCain now. Awesome choice.

Obviously not the outcome I was hoping for last night on Super Tuesday, but such is the world of politics. You can’t win them all. You support your candidate the best you can, and the chips will fall where they may.

Hugh Hewitt had a very good outlook this morning. If McCain is going to be the nominee, then I will support him 100%. If you get bent out of shape when your candidate doesn’t win, then your feelings are far too sensitive for politics. Whether it is Obama or Hillary in November, I will fully support the Republican nominee that goes against them. Hugh thinks Romney and Huckabee should stay in purely to make the mainstream media pay attention to the Republican race, which I think is a great idea. Hopefully we can see McCain and Romney mend some fences and make a nice ticket.

That being said, there is a long battle ahead for the future of this country. Will it be a country of smaller government and strong national security, or a country that adopts National Healthcare, higher taxes, and pro-choice judges? Once the nomination process is completed the real debate begins.

After 3.5 days of deliberating my case finally ended and I went back to work today. I’m so tired of it that I don’t even feel like describing it, but I’ll give you the short version. Guy is going out with girl, but girl’s ex-boyfriend doesn’t like this, so he shoots at new boyfriend. Personally I think there was no reasonable doubt, but my opinion didn’t matter as an alternate. Two out of the 12 disagreed though, and the guy goes free. I’m glad I wasn’t in the deliberation room because I would have gone crazy arguing with the people.

On to the political front. John McCain won Florida by a few percentage points, but I’m still gung-ho for Romney. In less than a week we get our say here in California, and I think it’s time for everyone to make up their mind. It’s come down to Romney and McCain. There are far too many things McCain has done that go against conservative principles, and it’s important that he not be the nominee. To everyone backing Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, your votes will go down the drain. Instead, put them behind Romney, a younger and more conservative nominee than McCain with the energy to defeat Hillary or Obama. McCain will take the Republican party away from the conservative principles of Regan, and moving to the left has never helped the Republican party. I would rather we stick to our conservative principles and lose in November than to abandon them and never find our way again.

Vote Mitt Romney on Tuesday, February 5th.

I’ve heard several people now say that they’re leaning towards Ron Paul, so I thought I’d make a special post about him.

Ron Paul is a Libertarian at heart, so it helps to understand the beliefs of the Libertarian party. Much of what he says about smaller government sounds great, but there are a few looney things that over the years have kept the Libertarian party a meaningless third party. Below are a few of those things that Ron Paul ascribes to.

1) He’s anti-death penalty, but most Republicans are the opposite. Surprisingly he’s pro-life which isn’t a given for Libertarians, but from what I can tell Paul is coming from a Christian background. He’s mixed some of his Libertarian values and his Christian values, and that has led to his own special version of being a Republican.

2) He’s anti-drug laws. He’s made some crazy statements that the war on drugs is keeping down the black man in the inner-city.

3) He doesn’t understand the danger of Militant Islam. A woman in the Sudan was being threatened with death for a Teddy Bear named Mohammad. What does that have to do with us “meddling” in foreign affairs as Ron Paul likes to say? What about when Iraq attacked Kuwait in the first Gulf War? According to Ron Paul since we weren’t threatened, then it’s not our fight. You know what, just forget that whole peace through strength thing. It’s better to just sit on our thumbs and get attacked first, and then we can worry about protecting ourselves.

If you’re a pacifist then this whole discussion is probably lost on you, but go read some of Paul’s comments. He says some looney things.

Overall I love what he has to say about limited government, and that’s the best thing the Libertarian party has going for it. Unfortunately for me, the other crackpot beliefs far outweigh my desire for a more limited government. Not to mention there isn’t a chance in heck he could win the national election. I also don’t understand how people like BOTH Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee. Paul is a limited government person, and Huckabee sounds like a big government Republican like Bush.

I think Thompson has the right stance on a lot of issues, and he might be the most conservative at his core, but he’s too late to the party, and he’s not dynamic enough to win the nomination or a general election. Giuliani is top notch on everything except social issues, which I might be able to live with if it means no Hillary or Obama. For now Romney is my favorite.

It’s been awhile, but I’ve got a good one!

Obama: Ahhh! My neck doesn’t bend!
Hillary: Dearest Jesus, please give us National Healthcare to help Obama.
Biden: Crap, is that marinara?

This story is quite old, but I’d never heard it, so I figure many of you have not. In August of 2003 US forces found Iraq’s Air Force buried in the desert. We’re talking a real jet fighter, buried in the sand.

Naturally this leads to a question of whether or not WMDs could be buried in Iraq, but we have no way of knowing. What I think this example does though is show the reality of Iraq, something that few Americans grasp. People watch their TV and read their newspapers, and it all seems so easy. There is no human element to even concern themselves with. If WMDs were there, they should have been found. Nevermind that they could be buried like these jets, or flown to Syria. Nevermind that Bill Clinton, Jacques Chirac, John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, Hillary Clinton, Barbara Boxer, Al Gore, John Edwards, Nancy Pelosi, and many others said prior to the war that Saddam Hussein had WMDs (here and here). Their TV news and newspaper haven’t had a picture of a barrel with "WMD" on the side, and that’s all that matters. People are so quick to forget the names mentioned above and label the President a liar.

I found an exceptional Op-Ed piece at a very unlikely location: the LA Times. The writer, Jonah Goldberg, says "The fact that Hussein turned out to be bluffing about WMD isn’t a mark against Bush’s decision. If you’re a cop and a man pulls out a gun and points it at you, you’re within your rights to shoot him, particularly if the man in question is a known criminal who’s shot people before. If it turns out afterward that the gun wasn’t loaded, that’s not the cop’s fault." Excellent analogy showing that the burden of proof was on Saddam Hussein, not the President. Read the whole thing, not too long but very enlightening.

Are your beliefs about the war in Iraq based on facts or rhetoric? Determination or emotion? Strength or pacifism? Body counts or lives liberated? I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

Pandering to Blacks at a recent Martin Luther King Jr. Day event, Senator Hillary Clinton made the following remarks: The House "has been run like a plantation, and you know what I’m talking about," said Clinton, D-New York. (See the full article here via CNN.) Update: Video at PolitcalTeen. I could go many directions from here (inspiration via Larry Elder).

I could talk about how most Black voters are taken for granted by the Democratic Party, and sadly a remark like this will do little to affect support among Blacks. The oddest thing of all is that Clinton was using this to rally the Blacks she was addressing. To even suggest that the House of Representatives is comparable to a plantation is ludicrous. Blacks should be outraged that Clinton would suggest such a thing, and even more upset that she is using it to promote her political adgenda.

I could talk about how Clinton is confused about where to position herself leading into 2008. She doesn’t know if she should position herself as a centrist or a far-left liberal. If she positions herself in the center like John Kerry, someone far-left like Dean might give her problems. However, if she goes too far-left she won’t appeal to those in the middle.

I could talk about how the mainstream media is going to give her a pass like they always do. Trent Lott was crucified over his comment to Strom Thurmond, which in and of itself was not racist (it was interpreted as an endorsement of Thurmond’s political stance at the time, though it’s likely Lott was simply saying he was a good man for the job.) Why isn’t the NAACP making an uproar and denouncing Clinton’s comments?

I will leave you with another quote from Senator Clinton from the same speech (this is for those of you that didn’t actually read the article). In two years when Clinton is running for office and promising to bring the country together, don’t forget this mean-spirited foaming at the mouth remark:

"I predict to you that this administration will go down in history as one of the worst that has ever governed our country."